• HOME
    HOME
  • PROPERTY SEARCH
    PROPERTY SEARCH
    • DREAM HOME FINDER
      DREAM HOME FINDER
    • BERKELEY HEIGHTS HOMES
      BERKELEY HEIGHTS HOMES
    • DUNELLEN HOMES
      DUNELLEN HOMES
    • FANWOOD HOMES
      FANWOOD HOMES
    • METUCHEN HOMES
      METUCHEN HOMES
    • NORTH PLAINFIELD HOMES
      NORTH PLAINFIELD HOMES
    • NEW PROVIDENCE HOMES
      NEW PROVIDENCE HOMES
    • PISCATAWAY HOMES
      PISCATAWAY HOMES
    • SCOTCH PLAINS HOMES
      SCOTCH PLAINS HOMES
    • SOUTH PLAINFIELD HOMES
      SOUTH PLAINFIELD HOMES
    • WATCHUNG HOMES
      WATCHUNG HOMES
    • WARREN HOMES
      WARREN HOMES
    • SOMERSET HOMES
      SOMERSET HOMES
  • HOME SELLERS
    HOME SELLERS
    • HOME VALUATION REQUEST
      HOME VALUATION REQUEST
    • STAGING YOUR HOME FOR SALE
      STAGING YOUR HOME FOR SALE
    • COMMUNITY INFO
      COMMUNITY INFO
    • LOCAL SERVICE PROVIDERS
      LOCAL SERVICE PROVIDERS
    • NEWS FOR HOME SELLERS
      NEWS FOR HOME SELLERS
  • HOME BUYERS
    HOME BUYERS
    • LUXURY HOMES IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
      LUXURY HOMES IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
    • CONDOS & TOWNHOUSES
      CONDOS & TOWNHOUSES
    • RETIREMENT HOUSING IN NEW JERSEY
      RETIREMENT HOUSING IN NEW JERSEY
    • MORTGAGE CALCULATOR
      MORTGAGE CALCULATOR
    • LOCAL SERVICE PROVIDERS
      LOCAL SERVICE PROVIDERS
    • NEWS FOR HOME BUYERS
      NEWS FOR HOME BUYERS
  • ABOUT ROBIN
    ABOUT ROBIN
    • ABOUT ROBIN
      ABOUT ROBIN
    • CONTACT ME
      CONTACT ME
    • TESTIMONIALS
      TESTIMONIALS
  • BLOG
    BLOG
  • HOME
    HOME
  • PROPERTY SEARCH
    PROPERTY SEARCH
    • DREAM HOME FINDER
      DREAM HOME FINDER
    • BERKELEY HEIGHTS HOMES
      BERKELEY HEIGHTS HOMES
    • DUNELLEN HOMES
      DUNELLEN HOMES
    • FANWOOD HOMES
      FANWOOD HOMES
    • METUCHEN HOMES
      METUCHEN HOMES
    • NORTH PLAINFIELD HOMES
      NORTH PLAINFIELD HOMES
    • NEW PROVIDENCE HOMES
      NEW PROVIDENCE HOMES
    • PISCATAWAY HOMES
      PISCATAWAY HOMES
    • SCOTCH PLAINS HOMES
      SCOTCH PLAINS HOMES
    • SOUTH PLAINFIELD HOMES
      SOUTH PLAINFIELD HOMES
    • WATCHUNG HOMES
      WATCHUNG HOMES
    • WARREN HOMES
      WARREN HOMES
    • SOMERSET HOMES
      SOMERSET HOMES
  • HOME SELLERS
    HOME SELLERS
    • HOME VALUATION REQUEST
      HOME VALUATION REQUEST
    • STAGING YOUR HOME FOR SALE
      STAGING YOUR HOME FOR SALE
    • COMMUNITY INFO
      COMMUNITY INFO
    • LOCAL SERVICE PROVIDERS
      LOCAL SERVICE PROVIDERS
    • NEWS FOR HOME SELLERS
      NEWS FOR HOME SELLERS
  • HOME BUYERS
    HOME BUYERS
    • LUXURY HOMES IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
      LUXURY HOMES IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
    • CONDOS & TOWNHOUSES
      CONDOS & TOWNHOUSES
    • RETIREMENT HOUSING IN NEW JERSEY
      RETIREMENT HOUSING IN NEW JERSEY
    • MORTGAGE CALCULATOR
      MORTGAGE CALCULATOR
    • LOCAL SERVICE PROVIDERS
      LOCAL SERVICE PROVIDERS
    • NEWS FOR HOME BUYERS
      NEWS FOR HOME BUYERS
  • ABOUT ROBIN
    ABOUT ROBIN
    • ABOUT ROBIN
      ABOUT ROBIN
    • CONTACT ME
      CONTACT ME
    • TESTIMONIALS
      TESTIMONIALS
  • BLOG
    BLOG
To Blog

3 Graphs To Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble

August 2, 2022
-
For Buyers, For Sellers, Foreclosures, Housing Market Updates
-
Posted by Robin Taylor Roth

3 Graphs To Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The Market

With all the headlines and buzz in the media, some consumers believe the market is in a housing bubble. As the housing market shifts, you may be wondering what’ll happen next. It’s only natural for concerns to creep in that it could be a repeat of what took place in 2008. The good news is, there’s concrete data to show why this is nothing like the last time.

There’s a Shortage of Homes on the Market Today, Not a Surplus

The supply of inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued price appreciation.

For historical context, there were too many homes for sale during the housing crisis (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to tumble. Today, supply is growing, but there’s still a shortage of inventory available.

The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to show how this time compares to the crash. Today, unsold inventory sits at just a 3.0-months’ supply at the current sales pace.

3 Graphs To Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The Market

One of the reasons inventory is still low is because of sustained underbuilding. When you couple that with ongoing buyer demand as millennials age into their peak homebuying years, it continues to put upward pressure on home prices. That limited supply compared to buyer demand is why experts forecast home prices won’t fall this time.

Mortgage Standards Were Much More Relaxed During the Crash

During the lead-up to the housing crisis, it was much easier to get a home loan than it is today. The graph below showcases data on the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The higher the number, the easier it is to get a mortgage.

3 Graphs To Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The Market

Running up to 2006, banks were creating artificial demand by lowering lending standards and making it easy for just about anyone to qualify for a home loan or refinance their current home. Back then, lending institutions took on much greater risk in both the person and the mortgage products offered. That led to mass defaults, foreclosures, and falling prices.

Today, things are different, and purchasers face much higher standards from mortgage companies. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:

“Credit standards tightened in recent months due to increasing economic uncertainty and monetary policy tightening.” 

Stricter standards, like there are today, help prevent a risk of a rash of foreclosures like there was last time.

The Foreclosure Volume Is Nothing Like It Was During the Crash

The most obvious difference is the number of homeowners that were facing foreclosure after the housing bubble burst. Foreclosure activity has been on the way down since the crash because buyers today are more qualified and less likely to default on their loans. The graph below uses data from ATTOM Data Solutions to help tell the story:

3 Graphs To Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The Market

In addition, homeowners today are equity rich, not tapped out. In the run-up to the housing bubble, some homeowners were using their homes as personal ATMs. Many immediately withdrew their equity once it built up. When home values began to fall, some homeowners found themselves in a negative equity situation where the amount they owed on their mortgage was greater than the value of their home. Some of those households decided to walk away from their homes, and that led to a wave of distressed property listings (foreclosures and short sales), which sold at considerable discounts that lowered the value of other homes in the area.

Today, prices have risen nicely over the last few years, and that’s given homeowners an equity boost. According to Black Knight:

“In total, mortgage holders gained $2.8 trillion in tappable equity over the past 12 months – a 34% increase that equates to more than $207,000 in equity available per borrower. . . .”

With the average home equity now standing at $207,000, homeowners are in a completely different position this time.

Bottom Line

If you’re worried we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, the graphs above should help alleviate your concerns. Concrete data and expert insights clearly show why this is nothing like the last time.

PREVIOUS POST
What Makes a Home Feel Luxurious?
NEXT POST
How to Get Your Kids to Read More This Summer

Robin Taylor Roth

Find Your Dream Home
[Trial Expired #28.3 - Your Showcase IDX Trial Has Expired.]
Get In Touch!
[Trial Expired #28.3 - Your Showcase IDX Trial Has Expired.]

What is My Home Worth?

Related News

Other posts that you should not miss

Americans See Real Estate as a Better Investment Than Stocks or Gold

May 18, 2021
-
Posted by Robin Taylor Roth

Last month, in a post on the Liberty Street Economics blog, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York noted that Americans …

Read More →
For Buyers, For Sellers, Housing Market Updates, Pricing
2 MIN READ

A Window of Opportunity for Homebuyers

July 26, 2022
-
Posted by Robin Taylor Roth

Mortgage rates are much higher today than they were at the beginning of the year, and that’s had a clear impact …

Read More →
First Time Home Buyers, For Buyers, Housing Market Updates, Move-Up Buyers
3 MIN READ

When Is the Right Time To Sell [INFOGRAPHIC]

January 14, 2022
-
Posted by Robin Taylor Roth

Some Highlights If you’re trying to decide when to list your house, the time is now. There are plenty of buyers …

Read More →
For Sellers, Infographics
1 MIN READ
Contact Me

Robin Taylor Roth
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices New Jersey Properties
564 Middlesex Ave, Metuchen, NJ 08840
NJ #0897458

Office : 732.494.7677
Cell : 908.612.4962
Email : robintaylorroth@BHHSNJ.com

Your Contact Info

     

    Agent Login

    © 2022 Robin Taylor Roth ©2017 BHH Affiliates, LLC. An independently owned and operated franchisee of BHH Affiliates, LLC. Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices and the Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices symbol are registered service marks of HomeServices of America, Inc.® Equal Housing Opportunity. Information not verified or guaranteed. If your home is currently listed with a Broker, this is not intended as a solicitation.

    3 Graphs To Show This Isn’t a Housing Bubble | Central New Jersey Real Estate

    Attraction in Dunellen Boro, NJ

    778 Frenchtown Rd
    Powered by Yelp
    The Famous River Hot Dog Man
    The Famous River Hot Dog Man - Milford Yelp Rating 17 reviews
    Rafting/Kayaking, Tubing
    778 Frenchtown Rd
    Powered by Yelp
    Delaware River Tubing
    Delaware River Tubing - Milford Yelp Rating 227 reviews
    Rafting/Kayaking, Boating, Tubing
    380 US 22
    Powered by Yelp
    Bowlero Green Brook
    Bowlero Green Brook - Green Brook Township Yelp Rating 178 reviews
    Venues & Event Spaces, Bowling, Eatertainment
    716 Union Ave
    Powered by Yelp
    Route 28 Farmers Market
    Route 28 Farmers Market - Middlesex Yelp Rating 28 reviews
    Farmers Market
    41 Mountain Blvd Ste E1
    Powered by Yelp
    4 Brothers Breakfast
    4 Brothers Breakfast - Warren Yelp Rating 639 reviews
    Southern, Breakfast & Brunch, Jazz & Blues
    42 Mountain Blvd
    Powered by Yelp
    SCLSNJ's Warren Township Branch
    SCLSNJ's Warren Township Branch - Warren Yelp Rating 8 reviews
    Libraries
    378 Route 6 & 209 Matamoras Base
    Powered by Yelp
    Kittatinny Canoes
    Kittatinny Canoes - Milford Yelp Rating 78 reviews
    Rafting/Kayaking, Tubing
    Powered by Yelp
    The Happy Wanderer Travel Agency
    The Happy Wanderer Travel Agency - Plainfield Yelp Rating 1 reviews
    Travel Agents, Tours
    378 Route 6 & 209
    Powered by Yelp
    Kittatinny Canoes
    Kittatinny Canoes - Milford Yelp Rating 30 reviews
    Campgrounds, Tubing, Rafting/Kayaking
    Powered by Yelp
    Derrick Joseph Psychic Medium
    Derrick Joseph Psychic Medium - Philadelphia Yelp Rating 26 reviews
    Psychic Mediums, Life Coach
    558 Bayway Ave Ste 1
    Powered by Yelp
    Party Factor
    Party Factor - Elizabeth Yelp Rating 5 reviews
    Party & Event Planning, Party Equipment Rentals, Wedding Planning
    Powered by Yelp
    OurBus
    OurBus - New York Yelp Rating 259 reviews
    Buses, Bus Rental, Travel Services
    225 US Hwy 46 Ste 7
    Powered by Yelp
    Ambassador Limo & Party Bus
    Ambassador Limo & Party Bus - Totowa Yelp Rating 7 reviews
    Limos, Party Bus Rentals