• HOME
    HOME
  • PROPERTY SEARCH
    PROPERTY SEARCH
    • DREAM HOME FINDER
      DREAM HOME FINDER
    • BERKELEY HEIGHTS HOMES
      BERKELEY HEIGHTS HOMES
    • DUNELLEN HOMES
      DUNELLEN HOMES
    • FANWOOD HOMES
      FANWOOD HOMES
    • METUCHEN HOMES
      METUCHEN HOMES
    • NORTH PLAINFIELD HOMES
      NORTH PLAINFIELD HOMES
    • NEW PROVIDENCE HOMES
      NEW PROVIDENCE HOMES
    • PISCATAWAY HOMES
      PISCATAWAY HOMES
    • SCOTCH PLAINS HOMES
      SCOTCH PLAINS HOMES
    • SOUTH PLAINFIELD HOMES
      SOUTH PLAINFIELD HOMES
    • WATCHUNG HOMES
      WATCHUNG HOMES
    • WARREN HOMES
      WARREN HOMES
    • SOMERSET HOMES
      SOMERSET HOMES
  • HOME SELLERS
    HOME SELLERS
    • HOME VALUATION REQUEST
      HOME VALUATION REQUEST
    • STAGING YOUR HOME FOR SALE
      STAGING YOUR HOME FOR SALE
    • COMMUNITY INFO
      COMMUNITY INFO
    • LOCAL SERVICE PROVIDERS
      LOCAL SERVICE PROVIDERS
    • NEWS FOR HOME SELLERS
      NEWS FOR HOME SELLERS
  • HOME BUYERS
    HOME BUYERS
    • LUXURY HOMES IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
      LUXURY HOMES IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
    • CONDOS & TOWNHOUSES
      CONDOS & TOWNHOUSES
    • RETIREMENT HOUSING IN NEW JERSEY
      RETIREMENT HOUSING IN NEW JERSEY
    • MORTGAGE CALCULATOR
      MORTGAGE CALCULATOR
    • LOCAL SERVICE PROVIDERS
      LOCAL SERVICE PROVIDERS
    • NEWS FOR HOME BUYERS
      NEWS FOR HOME BUYERS
  • ABOUT ROBIN
    ABOUT ROBIN
    • ABOUT ROBIN
      ABOUT ROBIN
    • CONTACT ME
      CONTACT ME
    • TESTIMONIALS
      TESTIMONIALS
  • BLOG
    BLOG
  • HOME
    HOME
  • PROPERTY SEARCH
    PROPERTY SEARCH
    • DREAM HOME FINDER
      DREAM HOME FINDER
    • BERKELEY HEIGHTS HOMES
      BERKELEY HEIGHTS HOMES
    • DUNELLEN HOMES
      DUNELLEN HOMES
    • FANWOOD HOMES
      FANWOOD HOMES
    • METUCHEN HOMES
      METUCHEN HOMES
    • NORTH PLAINFIELD HOMES
      NORTH PLAINFIELD HOMES
    • NEW PROVIDENCE HOMES
      NEW PROVIDENCE HOMES
    • PISCATAWAY HOMES
      PISCATAWAY HOMES
    • SCOTCH PLAINS HOMES
      SCOTCH PLAINS HOMES
    • SOUTH PLAINFIELD HOMES
      SOUTH PLAINFIELD HOMES
    • WATCHUNG HOMES
      WATCHUNG HOMES
    • WARREN HOMES
      WARREN HOMES
    • SOMERSET HOMES
      SOMERSET HOMES
  • HOME SELLERS
    HOME SELLERS
    • HOME VALUATION REQUEST
      HOME VALUATION REQUEST
    • STAGING YOUR HOME FOR SALE
      STAGING YOUR HOME FOR SALE
    • COMMUNITY INFO
      COMMUNITY INFO
    • LOCAL SERVICE PROVIDERS
      LOCAL SERVICE PROVIDERS
    • NEWS FOR HOME SELLERS
      NEWS FOR HOME SELLERS
  • HOME BUYERS
    HOME BUYERS
    • LUXURY HOMES IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
      LUXURY HOMES IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
    • CONDOS & TOWNHOUSES
      CONDOS & TOWNHOUSES
    • RETIREMENT HOUSING IN NEW JERSEY
      RETIREMENT HOUSING IN NEW JERSEY
    • MORTGAGE CALCULATOR
      MORTGAGE CALCULATOR
    • LOCAL SERVICE PROVIDERS
      LOCAL SERVICE PROVIDERS
    • NEWS FOR HOME BUYERS
      NEWS FOR HOME BUYERS
  • ABOUT ROBIN
    ABOUT ROBIN
    • ABOUT ROBIN
      ABOUT ROBIN
    • CONTACT ME
      CONTACT ME
    • TESTIMONIALS
      TESTIMONIALS
  • BLOG
    BLOG
To Blog

4 Simple Graphs Showing Why This Is Not a Housing Bubble

February 17, 2022
-
Housing Market Updates, Interest Rates, Pricing
-
Posted by Robin Taylor Roth

4 Simple Graphs Showing Why This Is Not a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The Market

A recent survey revealed that many consumers believe there’s a housing bubble beginning to form. That feeling is understandable, as year-over-year home price appreciation is still in the double digits. However, this market is very different than it was during the housing crash 15 years ago. Here are four key reasons why today is nothing like the last time.

1. Houses Are Not Unaffordable Like They Were During the Housing Boom

The affordability formula has three components: the price of the home, wages earned by the purchaser, and the mortgage rate available at the time. Conventional lending standards say a purchaser should not spend more than 28% of their gross income on their mortgage payment.

Fifteen years ago, prices were high, wages were low, and mortgage rates were over 6%. Today, prices are still high. Wages, however, have increased, and the mortgage rate, even after the recent spike, is still well below 6%. That means the average purchaser today pays less of their monthly income toward their mortgage payment than they did back then.

In the latest Affordability Report by ATTOM Data, Chief Product Officer Todd Teta addresses that exact point:

“The average wage earner can still afford the typical home across the U.S., but the financial comfort zone continues shrinking as home prices keep soaring and mortgage rates tick upward.”

Affordability isn’t as strong as it was last year, but it’s much better than it was during the boom. Here’s a chart showing that difference:

4 Simple Graphs Showing Why This Is Not a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The Market

If costs were so prohibitive, how did so many homes sell during the housing boom?

2. Mortgage Standards Were Much More Relaxed During the Boom

During the housing bubble, it was much easier to get a mortgage than it is today. As an example, let’s review the number of mortgages granted to purchasers with credit scores under 620. According to credit.org, a credit score between 550-619 is considered poor. In defining those with a score below 620, they explain:

“Credit agencies consider consumers with credit delinquencies, account rejections, and little credit history as subprime borrowers due to their high credit risk.”

Buyers can still qualify for a mortgage with a credit score that low, but they’re considered riskier borrowers. Here’s a graph showing the mortgage volume issued to purchasers with a credit score less than 620 during the housing boom, and the subsequent volume in the 14 years since.

4 Simple Graphs Showing Why This Is Not a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The Market

Mortgage standards are nothing like they were the last time. Purchasers that acquired a mortgage over the last decade are much more qualified. Let’s take a look at what that means going forward.

3. The Foreclosure Situation Is Nothing Like It Was During the Crash

The most obvious difference is the number of homeowners that were facing foreclosure after the housing bubble burst. The Federal Reserve issues a report showing the number of consumers with a new foreclosure notice. Here are the numbers during the crash compared to today:

4 Simple Graphs Showing Why This Is Not a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The Market

There’s no doubt the 2020 and 2021 numbers are impacted by the forbearance program, which was created to help homeowners facing uncertainty during the pandemic. However, there are fewer than 800,000 homeowners left in the program today, and most of those will be able to work out a repayment plan with their banks.

Rick Sharga, Executive Vice President of RealtyTrac, explains:

“The fact that foreclosure starts declined despite hundreds of thousands of borrowers exiting the CARES Act mortgage forbearance program over the last few months is very encouraging. It suggests that the ‘forbearance equals foreclosure’ narrative was incorrect.”

Why are there so few foreclosures now? Today, homeowners are equity rich, not tapped out.

In the run-up to the housing bubble, some homeowners were using their homes as personal ATM machines. Many immediately withdrew their equity once it built up. When home values began to fall, some homeowners found themselves in a negative equity situation where the amount they owed on their mortgage was greater than the value of their home. Some of those households decided to walk away from their homes, and that led to a rash of distressed property listings (foreclosures and short sales), which sold at huge discounts, thus lowering the value of other homes in the area.

Homeowners, however, have learned their lessons. Prices have risen nicely over the last few years, leading to over 40% of homes in the country having more than 50% equity. But owners have not been tapping into it like the last time, as evidenced by the fact that national tappable equity has increased to a record $9.9 trillion. With the average home equity now standing at $300,000, what happened last time won’t happen today.

As the latest Homeowner Equity Insights report from CoreLogic explains:

“Not only have equity gains helped homeowners more seamlessly transition out of forbearance and avoid a distressed sale, but they’ve also enabled many to continue building their wealth.”

There will be nowhere near the same number of foreclosures as we saw during the crash. So, what does that mean for the housing market?

4. We Don’t Have a Surplus of Homes on the Market – We Have a Shortage

The supply of inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued price appreciation. As the next graph shows, there were too many homes for sale from 2007 to 2010 (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to tumble. Today, there’s a shortage of inventory, which is causing the acceleration in home values to continue.

4 Simple Graphs Showing Why This Is Not a Housing Bubble | Simplifying The Market

Inventory is nothing like the last time. Prices are rising because there’s a healthy demand for homeownership at the same time there’s a shortage of homes for sale.

Bottom Line

If you’re worried that we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, the graphs above show data and insights to help alleviate your concerns.

PREVIOUS POST
More People Are Planning To Buy a Home Soon
NEXT POST
What’s Driving Today’s High Buyer Demand? [INFOGRAPHIC]

Robin Taylor Roth

Find Your Dream Home
Price
Beds
Baths
More
Save Search
Get In Touch!

What is My Home Worth?

Related News

Other posts that you should not miss

Why Right Now May Be the Time to Sell Your House

January 14, 2021
-
Posted by Robin Taylor Roth

The housing market made an incredible recovery in 2020 and is now positioned for an even stronger year in 2021. Record-low …

Read More →
For Buyers, For Sellers, Housing Market Updates, Interest Rates
2 MIN READ

3 Ways You’ll Win When You Buy a Home This Year

February 15, 2021
-
Posted by Robin Taylor Roth

There are so many great reasons to purchase a home, and over the past year, we’ve realized more of them than …

Read More →
First Time Home Buyers, For Buyers, Interest Rates
2 MIN READ

Do You Know How Much Equity You Have in Your Home? [INFOGRAPHIC]

April 8, 2022
-
Posted by Robin Taylor Roth

Some Highlights If you’re a homeowner, your net worth has gotten a big boost. That’s because recent home price appreciation has …

Read More →
For Sellers, Housing Market Updates, Infographics, Move-Up Buyers
1 MIN READ
Contact Me

Robin Taylor Roth
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices New Jersey Properties
564 Middlesex Ave, Metuchen, NJ 08840
NJ #0897458

Office : 732.494.7677
Cell : 908.612.4962
Email : robintaylorroth@BHHSNJ.com

Your Contact Info

     

    Agent Login

    © 2022 Robin Taylor Roth ©2017 BHH Affiliates, LLC. An independently owned and operated franchisee of BHH Affiliates, LLC. Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices and the Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices symbol are registered service marks of HomeServices of America, Inc.® Equal Housing Opportunity. Information not verified or guaranteed. If your home is currently listed with a Broker, this is not intended as a solicitation.

    4 Simple Graphs Showing Why This Is Not a Housing Bubble - Central New Jersey Real Estate

    Attraction in Dunellen Boro, NJ

    778 Frenchtown Rd
    Powered by Yelp
    The Famous River Hot Dog Man
    The Famous River Hot Dog Man - Milford Yelp Rating 17 reviews
    Rafting/Kayaking, Tubing
    80 Old York Rd
    Powered by Yelp
    Old York Cellars
    Old York Cellars - Ringoes Yelp Rating 216 reviews
    Wineries, Wine Tours
    778 Frenchtown Rd
    Powered by Yelp
    Delaware River Tubing
    Delaware River Tubing - Milford Yelp Rating 227 reviews
    Rafting/Kayaking, Boating, Tubing
    380 US 22
    Powered by Yelp
    Bowlero Green Brook
    Bowlero Green Brook - Green Brook Township Yelp Rating 178 reviews
    Venues & Event Spaces, Bowling, Eatertainment
    716 Union Ave
    Powered by Yelp
    Route 28 Farmers Market
    Route 28 Farmers Market - Middlesex Yelp Rating 28 reviews
    Farmers Market
    41 Mountain Blvd Ste E1
    Powered by Yelp
    4 Brothers Breakfast
    4 Brothers Breakfast - Warren Yelp Rating 639 reviews
    Southern, Breakfast & Brunch, Jazz & Blues
    42 Mountain Blvd
    Powered by Yelp
    SCLSNJ's Warren Township Branch
    SCLSNJ's Warren Township Branch - Warren Yelp Rating 8 reviews
    Libraries
    Powered by Yelp
    Derrick Joseph Psychic Medium
    Derrick Joseph Psychic Medium - Philadelphia Yelp Rating 26 reviews
    Psychic Mediums, Life Coach
    378 Route 6 & 209 Matamoras Base
    Powered by Yelp
    Kittatinny Canoes
    Kittatinny Canoes - Milford Yelp Rating 78 reviews
    Rafting/Kayaking, Tubing
    378 Route 6 & 209
    Powered by Yelp
    Kittatinny Canoes
    Kittatinny Canoes - Milford Yelp Rating 30 reviews
    Campgrounds, Tubing, Rafting/Kayaking
    Powered by Yelp
    The Happy Wanderer Travel Agency
    The Happy Wanderer Travel Agency - Plainfield Yelp Rating 1 reviews
    Travel Agents, Tours
    558 Bayway Ave Ste 1
    Powered by Yelp
    Party Factor
    Party Factor - Elizabeth Yelp Rating 5 reviews
    Party & Event Planning, Party Equipment Rentals, Wedding Planning
    Powered by Yelp
    OurBus
    OurBus - New York Yelp Rating 258 reviews
    Buses, Bus Rental, Travel Services
    225 US Hwy 46 Ste 7
    Powered by Yelp
    Ambassador Limo & Party Bus
    Ambassador Limo & Party Bus - Totowa Yelp Rating 7 reviews
    Limos, Party Bus Rentals